The arrival of bluetongue in eastern England in the late summer of last year was not a surprise. There were large outbreaks of the virus among farm animals in Belgium and the Netherlands, close enough to Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex for these counties already to be designated at risk because it was known that the infection could be carried by wind over the sea for hundreds of kilometres. An early warning service for Britain had been in operation from 1 April in anticipation. It used meteorological models originally devised to track the dispersal of radioactivity following a nuclear power station accident. Wind conditions were optimal on the night of 4 August for spread from the Low Countries to England. Beyond doubt this is when the virus arrived, carried by infected midges blown across the North Sea.

LRB 21 February 2008 | PDF Download