The US defence and intelligence community launched a pre-emptive strike at George Bush and Richard Cheney on 3 December. The new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released that day concluded: 'We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons programme.' So Iran will not be the next target of this administration after all. The politicians' attempt to blame the intelligence community for the absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq in 2003 has rebounded: this time around the intelligence agencies have acted decisively to outflank those wanting to bomb Iran. According to reports, the new NIE was based on intercepted Iranian military communications and on the debriefing of a senior Revolutionary Guard officer who vanished in Turkey last February.

LRB 24 January 2008 | PDF Download