An Aids epidemic is coming to South Africa. The countries with the highest Aids incidence in the world are grouped in East-Central Africa - Burundi, Tanzania, Uganda and Malawi are probably the greatest sufferers of all - and gradually the virus has been making its way southwards. It has indeed been possible to work out South Africa's 'HIV prevalence lag time': nine years behind Burundi, eight behind Tanzania, Uganda and Malawi, seven behind Zaire, Zambia and Rawanda, five behind Kenya and Angola - and so on. South Africa has been protected not only by its position on the continent's southern tip, but by its social and economic isolation: trade sanctions and the inhibitions on tourism have been an ill wind blowing some good. However, 60 per cent of the world's Aids victims are to be found in Africa - and there is no prospect of South Africa avoiding the scourge.

LRB 12 September 1991 | PDF Download